Carsem group employment data for the better will prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates -www.1hhh.com

Carsem group: employment data will prompt the fed to raise interest rates in November do clients view the latest market voting and non voting members of the Fed’s recent comments are more hawkish, thus continue to support the possibility of raising interest rates in November. Although the sixth day after the Fed’s November meeting is an important risk event of the US presidential election, the possibility of raising interest rates this month is still very low, but some Federal Reserve officials insist that the interest rate hike in the near future is fully reasonable and possible. This latest refers to November, December or early next year to be verified, and the specific interest rate hike depends mainly on the next few meetings before the release of economic data, the most concerned may be the non farm employment report on Friday September. In addition to the recent emergence of a number of Federal Reserve spokesman, advocated by the end of this year, it is necessary and possible to raise interest rates, the recent U.S. economic data also provide strong support for interest rates. Over the past week, a series of positive economic data led to a sharp rise in the dollar and a sharp drop in gold. The most striking of these positive data are the ISM manufacturing and non manufacturing (service) PMI last week, the final value of the 2 quarter of last week’s GDP and the initial jobless claims in the United States in the past three weeks. All the above data are significantly better than expected, indicating that the U.S. economy continues to strengthen, and thus support the possibility of the Fed’s recent interest rate hike. As usual, the non farm payrolls report will be one of the most critical factors affecting the trajectory of the Fed’s monetary policy on Friday, especially the non farm payrolls, which will be related to the two FOMC meetings in November and December. On the eve of this critical report, the implicit interest rate of the November interest rate hike in the federal fund futures market is only about 15%, while the probability of interest rate increase in December is still higher than 60%. Of course, according to the results of Friday’s employment report, the probability may change, which will affect the recent hurricane dollar, but the stock market is in the consolidation mode, especially the trend of gold and other assets. Although employment growth was less than expected in August, it was reported at 151 thousand, and nonfarm payrolls in the past three months showed high employment in the United States as a whole. The data were particularly strong in June and July, with correction values of 292 thousand and 275 thousand respectively. Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen acknowledged the overall trend of labor market improvement after the September FOMC meeting, but she also said that the Fed would like to see the job market continue to rise at the same time that inflation is rising. Obviously, such as Friday’s data is better than expected, continue the recent wave of positive U.S. economic data momentum, the possibility of interest rate hike will significantly rise, and even for the current weak interest rate hike in November the probability of overweight. Under the circumstances, the dollar will further push up, gold continues to bear pressure, the stock market pressure increased to some extent. But if the data unexpectedly down, the dollar should drop sharply, gold rebound. Mainstream payrolls are expected to increase by about 170 thousand jobs in, together with average hourly wages and unemployment rates, in September. Unemployment rate was 4.9% in September, and average hourly wage increased by 0.2% (0.1% last month). Wednesday’s ADP employment report was relatively strong, but slightly lower than expected, showing employment growth of 154 thousand people in September, expected to be around 166 thousand people. In addition, August A. 嘉盛集团:就业数据向好会促使美联储11月加息吗 客户端 查看最新行情   美联储投票和非投票委员近期言论都愈发鹰派,由此继续支持11月加息可能性。虽然鉴于美联储11月会议后第六天就是美国总统大选这一重要风险事件,当月加息的可能性仍非常之低,但若干美联储官员坚称近期内加息具有充分的合理性和可能性。这个近期指的是11月,12月或明年初尚待验证,且具体加息时机主要取决于未来几次会议前的经济数据发布,其中最引人关注的可能是本周五9月非农就业报告。   除最近多位美联储发言人登场,主张今年底前有必要且有可能加息以外,近期出炉的美国经济数据也为加息提供强劲支持。过去一周,一系列积极经济数据带动美元大幅上行,黄金更剧烈下挫。这些积极数据中最突出的是:上周ISM制造业和非制造业(服务业)PMI,上周后段的2季度GDP终值以及过去三周美国初请失业救济人数。上述所有数据都显著优于预期,表明美国经济持续走强,也由此支持美联储近期加息可能性。   跟以往一样,周五非农就业报告将成为影响美联储货币政策轨迹的最关键因素之一,尤其此次非农将关系到11月和12月两次FOMC会议。在此次关键报告发布前夕,目前联邦基金期货市场计入的11月加息隐含概率仅为15%左右,而12月加息几率仍高于60%。当然,根据周五就业报告结果不同,概率可能出现变化,由此影响近期狂飙的美元,获撑但处于盘整模式的股市,尤其暴跌的黄金等各资产走势。   虽然8月就业增长不及预期,报于15.1万,过去三个月的非农报告整体显示美国就业持续走高。6月和7月数据表现尤为强劲,修正值分别为29.2万和27.5万。美联储主席珍妮特-耶伦9月FOMC会议后明确承认劳动力市场整体改善趋势,但她也表示,美联储希望看到就业市场于通胀上升同时继续走强。   很明显,如周五数据优于预期,继续近期一波积极美国经济数据势头,加息可能性将显著攀升,甚至为当前渺茫的11月加息几率大幅加码。该情境下,美元将进一步推高,黄金继续承压,股市压力一定程度加大。但如数据意外下行,美元应急剧回落,黄金反弹。   主流预期本周五与平均小时薪资及失业率一道发布的9月非农就业增长17万人次左右。料9月失业率为4.9%,平均小时薪资增长0.2%(上月0.1%)。   周三ADP就业报告相对强劲,但略低于预期,显示9月就业增长15.4万人次,预期为16.6万人次左右。另外,8月ADP数据自之前的17.7万人次小幅下修至17.5万人次。ADP数据某种程度上常被视为有限的非农领先指标。   但本周其他9月关键就业数据明显优于预期,其中包括ISM制造业和非制造业(服务业)PMI就业分项指标。虽然数据仍指向收缩,但9月制造业就业指数自8月的48.3升至49.7,几乎到达50.0扩张阙值。更为重要服务业就业指标自8月的50.7大增至9月的57.2。   此外,9月每周初请失业救济人数整体接近长线低点并大幅优于预期。周四出炉的9月最后一周数据优于预期(低于预期),实值24.9万,预期25.5万。而9月前三周人数也低于预期,申领失业救济数据趋势持续向好。   因此,虽然ADP数据不及预期,但根据其他领先就业数据表现,周五9月非农实值可能优于主流预期的17万人次,目标区间为17.5-20万。跟以前一样,如届时数据跟预期产生严重偏差,市场将受强烈影响,首当其冲的是美元及黄金等商品表现。尤其当前狂飙的美元 日元和暴跌的英镑 美元,以及严重承压的金银价格或基于周五非农实值走向及其对货币政策的不同影响展开大幅走势。   非农就业增长以及可能引发的美元反应   > 200,000          强劲看涨    170,000-200,000    看涨    150,000-169,000    温和看跌   < 150,000           强烈看跌 新浪声明:新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。相关的主题文章: