Hong Kong stocks will continue to be weak-nrf905

Hong Kong stocks weak trend will continue in the Sina Hong Kong columnist Luo Xueming WeChat public number (xlgg-sina) from the perspective of the dollar index daily chart have peaked signal. But the devaluation of the RMB exchange rate trend peaked signal has not yet appeared, but the devaluation trend under the south to enter the Hong Kong stock market funds are not a rush to raise that they are waiting for the arrival of Hong Kong stocks low. Thursday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities concussion consolidation, the Shanghai stock index fell 5 lines, approaching 3100 point mark, which belongs to the adjustment trend. Late in the brokerage sector, the banking sector led down a small V market, see the main force in the death of the big city. At the end of the session, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3112 points, down 3 points, and the total turnover was 182 billion 237 million. Shenzhengchengzhi to close at 10788 points, down 28, turnover of 271 billion 681 million. On Thursday the Shanghai received a long lower shadow Doji, according to technical analysis this is a short-term bottom signal, indicating that the market outlook has rebounded. But from the political point of view, the RMB devaluation trend still, the RMB against the dollar in the bank (USDCNY) bears continue to prevail without the slightest idea to retreat. As long as the depreciation of the RMB devaluation has not been suppressed, there is no significant downside risk of A shares, if the callback rate will not be too large. If the RMB devaluation momentum was down and unable to suppress the upside, indicating that the central bank to bear force, bears will be retreated, this time must beware of A shares fall risk. Under the trend of devaluation, the main intention is to retain capital in the market and avoid systemic risk because of the rapid escape of funds. Sometimes the market has to consider both economic and political considerations. Shanghai strong resistance is 3140, short-term support 3088 points, strong support for 3078 points. Be cautious if there is a rally on Friday. 3140 point for strong resistance, break through stabilization opportunity is not big. Because of the recent devaluation trend is the main stock market stability has a large blue chip to lift the index, it is recommended to avoid the blue chips. There is little systemic risk in the future, because there are not many stocks in recent years, most of them are located near the bottom. So the next market will be heavy stocks, light blue chip. On Thursday, the Hang Seng index fall, fell to 23002 points, the city decline, as of the close, the Hang Seng Index closed at 23132 points, down 193 points, turnover of HK $58 billion 700 million. Hong Kong stock market is stronger than the bull power, and the market is in a weak market. Investor sentiment is strong, the market has been hot point for the digestion of Shenzhen and Hong Kong through with Hong Kong stocks rose too much earlier (24364) after the fall into line track. Market outlook is not optimistic, the key to see whether 23000 points hold, fall will be down to test 22800 points. Economic data released by the United States on Wednesday night, the U.S. trade deficit since September -590 billion dollars narrowed to -560 billion, is the best level since March 2016. At the same time, the total number of new home sales in the United States in September (10000 households) was 593 thousand, a monthly increase of 3.1%, close to July hit a nine year high

港股软弱态势还将持续   文 新浪港股专栏作家 罗学铭 微信公众号(xlgg-sina)   美元指数从日线图角度看已经有见顶信号发出。但人民币汇率贬值趋势的见顶信号还没有出现,偏偏在人民币贬值趋势下南下资金没有大幅进入港股市场抢筹,说明他们在等待港股低点到来。   周四沪深两市震荡盘整,沪指失守5日线,逼近3100点关口,属于调整趋势当中。尾盘在券商板块、银行板块带动下来了个小V行情,看得出主力在死扛大市。截至收盘,上证综指收报3112点,跌3点,全日成交额为1822.37亿。深证成指收报10788点,跌28点,全日成交额2716.81亿。   周四上证收出长下影线十字星,按技术面分析这是一个短期见底信号,说明后市有反弹力度。但从政治角度考虑,人民币还在贬值趋势当中,在岸美元兑人民币(USDCNY)空头继续占据上风没有丝毫想撤退的念头。后市只要人民币贬值势头没有得到抑制,A股不存在大幅度下跌风险、若真出现回调幅度不会太大。要是人民币贬值势头被打压下来且无力上攻,说明央行打压到了空头势力,空头会开始撤退,此时必须提防A股回落风险。主力在人民币贬值趋势下死扛大市意图就是留住资本在市场,避免因为资金快速逃离出现系统性风险。有时候市场既要考虑经济因素,又要考虑政治因素。上证强阻力为3140,短线支撑3088点,强支撑为3078点。   若周五出现拉升行情,就要小心谨慎一下。3140点为强阻力,突破企稳机会不大。近期因为人民币贬值趋势主力维稳股市已经购买了大量蓝筹股拉抬指数,建议避开蓝筹股。后市系统性风险不大,因为近期很多个股涨幅不多,大多处于底部附近位置。所以接下来的行情就要重个股,轻蓝筹。   周四恒生指数跌跌不休,一度跌至23002点,尾市跌幅收窄,截至收盘,恒生指数收报23132点,跌193点,全日成交额587亿港元。   港股目前空头势力强于多头势力,大市处于偏淡行情。投资者观望情绪强烈,市场对深港通热点已经有点消化了,加上港股此前涨幅过大(24364点)后回落进入跌势轨道当中。后市走势不容乐观,关键要看23000点可否守住,失守将会下行测试22800点。   周三晚美国公布的经济数据显示,美国9月贸易赤字自-590亿美元收窄至-560亿美元,是2016年3月以来的最佳水平。同时美国9月新屋销售总数年化(万户)为59.3万户,月增3.1%,接近7月触及的九年高位。加上美国10月Markit服务业综合PMI初值(54.9)升至2015年11月以来最高水平。另外2017年有投票权的美国费城联储主席Harker在华尔街日报的一篇报导指出,市场低估了美联储利率正常化进程,他认为利率在零附近徘徊太久有风险,在9月份的会议上他赞成加息25基点。由于得到上述基本面支持使到美元整体保持强势,尽管周二晚上曾一度大度回落,但随后低位得到企稳反弹,仍旧维持在近期高点附近。美元走强对美股造成打压影响港股表现。   美元指数从日线图角度看已经有见顶信号发出。但人民币汇率贬值趋势的见顶信号还没有出现,偏偏在人民币贬值趋势下南下资金没有大幅进入港股市场抢筹,说明他们在等待港股低点到来。外围方面,API及EIA原油存储量大幅增加导致油价下跌并失守50元关口使到油价技术上造成双顶看跌图形(支撑为47.5,阻力为52),这种情况不利于美股,相信港股软弱态势还将持续。   (本文作者介绍:建筑系出身,主业制造,副业投资,兼职某基金会分析师,从事股票、黄金、外汇投资。)相关的主题文章: